丝绸之路经济带交通基础设施规划.投资及其经济效应-基于我国西北内陆三省两区的实证研究

第1章 引言 ·····································································1 1.1 “现代丝绸之路”交通基础设施建设问题的缘由 ···········2 1.2 研究交通基础设施建设的意义 ···········································6 1.2.1 理论意义 ·············································································6 1.2.2 现实意义 ·············································································8 1.3 篇章安排 ···············································································9 1.3.1 研究思路 ·············································································9 1.3.2 篇章结构 ···········································································10 第2章 “丝绸之路”新旧解读 ······································13 2.1 引言 ·····················································································14 2.2 起源：古代丝绸之路 ·························································14 2.3 发展：现代丝绸之路 ·························································16 2.4 “现代丝绸之路”的提出背景 ·········································19 2.5 “现代丝绸之路”的本质 ·················································23 2.6 “现代丝绸之路”的重要基础：交通基础设施 ·············27 2.7 本章小结 ·············································································31 第3章 我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施现状分析 与综合评价 ························································33 3.1 引言 ·····················································································34 3.2 三省两区交通基础设施现状 ·············································34 3.1.1 陕西··················································································· 37 3.1.2 甘肃··················································································· 41 3.1.3 青海··················································································· 46 3.1.4 宁夏··················································································· 50 3.1.5 新疆··················································································· 54 3.3 三省两区现有交通基础设施评价 ·····································58 3.4 本章小结 ·············································································59 第4章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划目标 ··· 61 4.1 引言 ·····················································································62 4.2 三省两区的规划目标 ·························································63 4.2.1 陕西··················································································· 64 4.2.2 甘肃··················································································· 65 4.2.3 青海··················································································· 67 4.2.4 宁夏··················································································· 69 4.2.5 新疆··················································································· 71 4.3 本章小结 ·············································································74 第5章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划 ········· 77 5.1 引言 ·····················································································78 5.2 影响交通基础设施规划的因素分析 ·································78 5.2.1 社会经济发展水平··························································· 79 5.2.2 交通运输需求··································································· 79 5.2.3 自然条件··········································································· 80 5.2.4 技术条件··········································································· 81 5.2.5 建设资金及发展政策······················································· 81 5.2.6 环保问题·········································································· 82 5.2.7 现有交通基础设施··························································· 82 5.3 交通基础设施规划的方法及工具 ·····································83 5.3.1 交通基础设施规划的基本步骤······································· 83 5.3.2 基于交通基础设施规划流程的具体方法和工具简介··· 85 5.4 交通规划方案评价 ·····························································93 5.5 三省两区现有公路与铁路规划方案及优化 ·····················95 5.5.1 三省两区现有“十三五”交通规划方案······················· 95 5.5.2 三省两区铁路及公路规划方案优化······························· 98 5.6 本章小结 ···········································································117 第6章交通基础设施投资成本测算······························119 6.1 引言 ···················································································120 6.2 交通基础设施成本测算方法及适用性分析 ···················121 6.2.1 工程项目投资成本测算的基本内容····························· 121 6.2.2 工程项目投资成本估算的基本方法····························· 122 6.3 三省两区整体规划方案投资成本测算 ···························138 6.3.1 铁路投资成本估算························································· 139 6.3.2 公路投资成本估算························································· 145 6.4 本章小结 ···········································································150 第7章交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究 ·················· 153 7.1 引言 ···················································································154 7.1.1 推动国家经济的增长····················································· 154 7.1.2 促进我国区域间协调发展············································· 155 7.1.3 加强国际间合作交流····················································· 156 7.2 相关的基础理论 ·······························································157 7.2.1 古典主义········································································· 157 7.2.2 凯恩斯主义····································································· 158 7.2.3 发展经济学····································································· 158 7.2.4 新经济增长理论····························································· 159 7.2.5 新经济地理学································································· 160 7.3 交通基础设施与经济增长的互动机制 ···························160 7.4 交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究 ·······························162 7.4.1 交通基础设施与经济增长的关系································· 163 7.4.2 交通基础设施的空间溢出效应····································· 177 7.4.3 交通基础设施对产业聚集的影响································· 186 7.4.4 交通基础设施对区域贸易的影响································· 194 7.4.5 交通基础设施建设对产业升级的影响························· 202 7.5 “十三五”期间交通基础设施建设对西北内陆三省两区 的经济效应分析 ································································206 7.6 本章小结 ···········································································211 第8章结论与展望 ······················································213 8.1 研究结论 ···········································································214 8.2 不足与展望 ·······································································219 附录A 新疆维吾尔自治区内交通点重要度 ·················· 222 附录B 宁夏回族自治区内交通点重要度 ····················· 230 附录C 青海省内交通点重要度··································· 237 附录 D 甘肃省内交通点重要度··································· 243 附录 E 三省两区内交通点重要度综合分析 ················· 250 附录 F 2014—2016年国家发改委有关铁路投资项目的 审批文件 ·························································260 参考文献······································································265