清华大学中国平衡发展指数报告

目 录 CONTENTS **章 研究背景与意义……………………………………………………1 一、研究背景…………………………………………………………………………1 二、研究意义…………………………………………………………………………2 第二章 中国平衡发展指数理论方法………………………………………3 **节 目标定位……………………………………………………………………3 第二节 编制思路……………………………………………………………………3 一、人民美好生活需要的内涵 ………………………………………………3 二、发展不平衡不充分的内涵及其衡量方式 ………………………………6 三、技术路线 …………………………………………………………………7 四、设计框架 …………………………………………………………………9 第三节 指标体系…………………………………………………………………10 一、指标选取原则 …………………………………………………………10 二、指标体系构建 …………………………………………………………11 第四节 平衡发展指数的计算方法………………………………………………13 一、数据预处理 ……………………………………………………………13 二、指数计算流程 …………………………………………………………14 三、指数计算方法 …………………………………………………………15 _x00C_ XIV 第三章 中国平衡发展指数测算结果………………………………………20 **节 平衡发展的总体趋势和主要特征………………………………………20 一、总体趋势 ………………………………………………………………20 二、主要特征 ………………………………………………………………22 第二节 分领域平衡发展的趋势与特征…………………………………………23 一、经济发展 ………………………………………………………………23 二、社会进步 ………………………………………………………………24 三、生态环境 ………………………………………………………………25 四、民生福祉 ………………………………………………………………26 第三节 地区及城乡发展平衡状况………………………………………………27 一、地区发展平衡程度与特征 ……………………………………………27 二、城乡发展平衡程度与特征 ……………………………………………29 第四章 中国平衡发展的成绩、问题与建议………………………………31 **节 主要成绩…………………………………………………………………31 一、节能降耗稳步推进，能源产出效率明显提高 ………………………31 二、创新驱动成效显著，创新能力和效率进一步提升 …………………32 三、基础设施明显改善，互联网普及率大幅提升 ………………………33 四、基础教育成效显著，人力资本质量稳步提高 ………………………34 五、养老保险覆盖面不断扩大，养老服务供给持续增加 ………………35 六、蓝天保卫战稳步推进，空气质量明显改善 …………………………37 七、环境治理力度持续加强，污染防治取得重大进展 …………………38 八、脱贫攻坚成果显著，居民收入稳步提升 ……………………………38 九、医疗水平逐年提高，居民健康状况持续改善 ………………………40 第二节 突出问题…………………………………………………………………41 一、资本产出率持续下降，投资效率地区差异显著 ……………………41 二、居民收入差距依然较大，城乡二元结构问题突出 …………………42 三、医疗基础地区发展不平衡，农村医疗保障较为落后 ………………44 四、教育发展不平衡问题突出，地区及城乡差异显著 …………………45 五、养老金替代率持续下降，养老保障城乡差异突出 …………………46 六、土壤质量地区不平衡，部分地区污染严重 …………………………47 _x00C_ XV 第三节 政策建议…………………………………………………………………49 一、加快推进供给侧结构性改革，切实提高资本配置效率 ……………49 二、推动城乡与地区协调发展，缩小居民收入差距 ……………………49 三、促进医疗服务地区协调发展，补齐农村医疗保障短板 ……………50 四、合理优化配置教育资源，着力解决教育发展不平衡问题 …………50 五、发展多元化养老服务体系，促进城乡养老平衡发展 ………………51 六、防治土壤污染，推动土壤资源永续利用 ……………………………51 第五章 经济平衡发展指数专题分析………………………………………52 **节 经济效益平衡发展指数…………………………………………………52 一、经济效益平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………52 二、经济效益平衡发展的具体表现 ………………………………………53 三、经济效益平衡发展小结 ………………………………………………58 第二节 经济结构平衡发展指数…………………………………………………60 一、经济结构平衡发展的总体趋势 ………………………………………60 二、我国经济结构平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………60 三、经济结构平衡发展小结 ………………………………………………64 第三节 创新驱动平衡发展指数…………………………………………………66 一、创新驱动平衡发展的总体趋势 ………………………………………66 二、创新驱动具体表现 ……………………………………………………66 三、创新驱动平衡发展小结 ………………………………………………69 第四节 基础设施平衡发展指数…………………………………………………70 一、基础设施平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………70 二、基础设施平衡发展的具体表现 ………………………………………71 三、基础设施平衡发展小结 ………………………………………………76 第五节 人力资本平衡发展指数…………………………………………………78 一、人力资本平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………78 二、我国人力资本平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………79 三、人力资本平衡发展小结 ………………………………………………82 _x00C_ 第六章 社会平衡发展指数专题分析………………………………………83 **节 社会文明平衡发展指数…………………………………………………84 一、社会文明平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………84 二、我国社会文明平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………85 三、我国社会文明平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………89 第二节 社会公平平衡发展指数…………………………………………………90 一、社会公平平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………90 二、我国社会公平平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………91 三、我国社会公平平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………94 第三节 社会安全平衡发展指数…………………………………………………95 一、社会安全平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………95 二、我国社会安全平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………96 三、我国社会安全平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………100 第四节 社会治理平衡发展指数…………………………………………………101 一、社会治理平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………101 二、我国社会治理平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………102 三、我国社会治理平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………105 第五节 社会保障平衡发展指数…………………………………………………107 一、社会保障平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………107 二、我国社会保障平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………108 三、我国社会保障平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………114 第七章 生态平衡发展指数专题分析……………………………………117 **节 空气质量平衡发展指数…………………………………………………117 一、空气质量平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………117 二、我国空气质量平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………118 三、我国空气质量平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………121 第二节 水质量平衡发展指数……………………………………………………123 一、水质量平衡发展指数的总体趋势 ……………………………………123 二、我国水质量平衡发展的具体表现 ……………………………………124 _x00C_ 三、我国水质量平衡发展的小结 …………………………………………126 第三节 土壤质量平衡发展指数…………………………………………………128 一、土壤质量平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………128 二、我国土壤质量平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………129 三、我国土壤质量平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………132 第四节 环境治理平衡发展指数…………………………………………………134 一、环境治理平衡发展指数总体趋势 ……………………………………134 二、我国环境治理平衡发展的具体表现 …………………………………135 三、我国环境治理平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………138 第五节 生态保护平衡发展指数…………………………………………………139 一、生态保护发展指数总体趋势 …………………………………………139 二、我国生态保护发展的具体表现 ………………………………………140 三、我国生态平衡发展的小结 ……………………………………………142 第八章 民生平衡发展指数专题分析……………………………………144 **节 收入平衡发展指数………………………………………………………144 一、收入平衡发展指数的总体趋势 ………………………………………144 二、收入平衡发展指数的具体表现 ………………………………………145 三、收入平衡发展指数的小结 ……………………………………………149 第二节 就业平衡发展指数………………………………………………………151 一、就业平衡发展指数的总体趋势 ………………………………………151 二、我国就业平衡发展的具体表现 ………………………………………152 三、就业平衡发展指数的小结 ……………………………………………154 第三节 居住平衡发展指数………………………………………………………155 一、居住平衡发展指数的总体趋势 ………………………………………155 二、居住平衡发展的具体表现 ……………………………………………156 三、居住平衡发展的小结 …………………………………………………160 第四节 教育平衡发展指数………………………………………………………162 一、教育平衡发展指数的总体趋势 ………………………………………162 二、我国教育平衡发展的具体表现 ………………………………………163 _x00C_ 三、我国教育平衡发展的小结 ……………………………………………166 第五节 医疗健康平衡发展指数…………………………………………………168 一、医疗健康平衡发展指数的总体趋势 …………………………………168 二、医疗健康平衡发展指数的具体表现 …………………………………168 三、我国医疗健康平衡发展的小结 ………………………………………175 附 录………………………………………………………………………178 附录A 指标标准化方法选择说明………………………………………………178 附录B 三级指标标准化参数设定………………………………………………181 附录C 地区不平衡测度的权重信息……………………………………………183 附录D 不同权重方案下的平衡发展指数结果比较……………………………184 附录E 统计指标解释与数据来源………………………………………………186 附录F 2011—2017年平衡发展指数测算结果…………………………………192 _x00C_ 图表目录 CONTENTS 表2-1 不平衡类型及其测度方法 ·································································································7 图2-1 平衡发展指数编制的技术路线 ·························································································8 图2-2 平衡发展指数的研究框架 ·································································································9 图2-3 平衡发展指数的设计思路 ·······························································································10 表2-2 平衡发展指数的指标体系 ·······························································································12 图2-4 平衡发展指数的计算流程 ·······························································································14 图3-1 中国总体及各领域平衡发展指数趋势 ···········································································20 图3-2 2011—2017年平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··················································21 表3-1 2011—2017年平衡发展指数改进分解 ··········································································22 图3-3 2011—2017年四大领域平衡发展的贡献度 ··································································23 图3-4 经济领域平衡发展指数和发展指数 ···············································································23 图3-5 经济领域各二级指标平衡发展指数趋势 ·······································································24 图3-6 社会领域发展指数和平衡发展指数 ···············································································24 图3-7 社会领域各二级指标平衡发展指数趋势 ·······································································25 图3-8 生态领域发展指数和平衡发展指数 ···············································································25 图3-9 生态领域各二级指标平衡发展指数趋势 ·······································································26 图3-10 民生领域发展指数和平衡发展指数 ·············································································26 图3-11 民生领域各二级指标平衡发展指数趋势 ·····································································27 图3-12 中国总体及各领域地区不平衡程度趋势 ·····································································28 图3-13 2011—2017年地区不平衡程度改进分解 ····································································28 图3-14 地区不平衡程度较高的部分指标趋势 ·········································································29 图3-15 中国总体及六个方面城乡不平衡程度 ·········································································30 图4-1 能源产出率平衡发展指数 ·······························································································31 _x00C_ XX 图4-2 创新驱动与分项指标平衡发展指数 ···············································································32 图4-3 基础设施与分项指标平衡发展指数 ···············································································33 图4-4 互联网普及率地区与城乡发展不平衡程度 ···································································34 图4-5 2011—2017年高中教育毛入学率 ··················································································34 图4-6 劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限平衡发展指数趋势 ·······················································35 图4-7 养老保险覆盖率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···············································36 图4-8 每千老年人口养老床位数平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·······························36 图4-9 空气质量平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························································37 图4-10 环境治理平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································38 图4-11 全国贫困发生率趋势 ·····································································································39 图4-12 居民人均可支配收入平衡发展指数综合分析 ·····························································40 图4-13 医疗健康平衡发展指数综合分析 ·················································································41 图4-14 资本产出率平衡发展指数与地区不平衡程度 ·····························································42 图4-15 区域居民人均可支配收入情况 ·····················································································43 图4-16 城乡居民人均可支配收入情况 ·····················································································43 图4-17 我国各区域每千人口卫生技术人员情况 ·····································································44 图4-18 每千人口卫生技术人员城乡不平衡系数 ·····································································45 图4-19 2017年各省份高中及以下阶段教育生均教育经费支出 ············································45 图4-20 养老金替代率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·················································46 图4-21 养老金替代率城乡不平衡程度趋势 ·············································································47 图4-22 土壤质量平衡发展指数、发展水平及发展损失 ·························································48 图5-1 经济效益平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························································52 图5-2 人均GDP平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································53 图5-3 我国各省（区、市）人均GDP ······················································································54 图5-4 能源产出率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·······················································55 图5-5 2017年我国各省（区、市）能源产出率 ······································································56 图5-6 资本产出率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·······················································57 图5-7 2017年我国各省（区、市）资本产出率 ······································································58 图5-8 经济结构平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························································60 图5-9 高技术企业主营业务收入与GDP之比平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·········61 图5-10 我国各省（区、市）高技术企业主营业务收入与GDP之比 ···································62 图5-11 居民消费率平衡发展指数 ·····························································································63 图5-12 服务贸易占对外贸易比重平衡发展指数 ·····································································64 图5-13 创新驱动平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································66 _x00C_ XXI 图5-14 R&D经费投入强度平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失········································67 图5-15 万人发明专利拥有量平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·····································68 图5-16 我国各省（区、市）万人发明专利拥有量 ·································································69 图5-17 基础设施平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································71 图5-18 互联网普及率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·················································72 图5-19 互联网普及率地区与城乡发展不平衡程度 ·································································73 图5-20 互联网普及率国际比较 ·································································································73 图5-21 铁路密度平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································74 图5-22 人均铁路里程国际比较 ·································································································75 图5-23 城市交通承载力平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·············································76 图5-24 人力资本平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································79 图5-25 劳动力人口占比平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·············································79 图5-26 我国各省（区、市）劳动力人口占比对比 ·································································80 图5-27 劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·····················81 图5-28 我国各省（区、市）劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限比较 ·········································81 图6-1 2011—2017年我国社会文明平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··························84 图6-2 2011—2017年我国人均拥有公共图书馆藏量平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ····85 图6-3 2011年和2017年我国各省（区、市）人均拥有公共图书馆藏量 ····························86 图6-4 2011—2017年我国人均文化事业费平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··············87 图6-5 2016和2017年我国各地区文化事业费增长趋势 ························································88 图6-6 2011和2017年我国各省（区、市）人均文化事业费 ················································88 图6-7 2011—2017年我国社会公平平衡发展指数变化趋势 ··················································90 图6-8 2011—2017年我国基尼系数平衡发展指数变化趋势 ··················································91 图6-9 2011—2017年我国基尼系数变化趋势 ··········································································92 图6-10 2011—2017年我国劳动就业人员中的性别差异平衡发展指数变化趋势 ················93 图6-11 2011—2017年我国劳动就业人员中的性别差异变化趋势·········································93 图6-12 2011—2017年我国社会安全平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ························96 图6-13 2011—2017年我国亿元GDP生产安全事故死亡人数平衡发展指数、发展指数及 发展损失··········································································································································97 图6-14 2011和2017年我国各省（区、市）亿元GDP生产安全事故死亡人数 ················98 图6-15 2011—2017年刑事犯罪率平衡发展指数变化趋势 ····················································99 图6-16 2011—2017年我国刑事犯罪率、青少年犯罪占刑事犯罪人数比重 ······················100 图6-17 2011—2017年我国社会治理平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······················102 图6-18 2011—2017年我国每十万人社会组织平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······103 _x00C_ 图6-19 2011和2017年我国各省（区、市）每十万人社会组织数 ····································103 图6-20 2011—2017年我国每十万人拥有律师数平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··104 图6-21 2011和2017年我国各省（区、市）每十万人拥有律师数 ····································105 图6-22 2011—2017年我国社会保障平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······················107 图6-23 2011—2017年我国养老金替代率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··············108 图6-24 2011—2017年我国养老金替代率城乡不平衡程度变化趋势 ··································108 图6-25 2011—2017年我国区域人均养老金情况 ··································································109 图6-26 2011—2017年我国养老保险覆盖率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··········110 图6-27 2011—2017年我国养老保险覆盖率不平衡程度变化趋势 ·······································111 图6-28 2011—2017年我国医疗自付平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······················112 图6-29 2011和2016年我国各省（区、市）医疗自付比 ····················································112 图6-30 2011—2017年我国贫困发生率平衡发展指数变化趋势 ··········································113 图7-1 空气质量平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·························································118 图7-2 空气质量优良率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·············································119 图7-3 我国各省（区、市）空气质量指数优良率 ·································································119 图7-4 PM2.5浓度未达标率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·····································120 图7-5 我国各省（区、市）细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度未达标率 ··········································121 图7-6 2011—2017年水质量平衡发展指数与发展损失变化 ················································123 图7-7 不平衡对地表水劣于V类水体比例的影响 ································································124 图7-8 我国各省（区、市）地表水劣于V类水体比例 ························································125 图7-9 河流水质状况Ⅲ类以上占比变化趋势 ·········································································126 图7-10 2011—2017年土壤质量平衡发展指数趋势 ······························································129 图7-11 2011—2017年单位耕地面积化肥施用量发展指数趋势···········································130 图7-12 我国各省（区、市）单位耕地面积化肥施用量 ·······················································130 图7-13 2011—2017年单位耕地面积农药使用量发展指数趋势 ··········································131 图7-14 我国各省（区、市）单位耕地面积农药使用量 ·······················································132 图7-15 2011—2017年环境治理平衡发展指数与发展损失变化 ··········································135 图7-16 2011—2017年城市生活垃圾无害化处理率平衡发展指数趋势 ······························136 图7-17 我国各省（区、市）城市生活垃圾无害化处理率 ···················································136 图7-18 2011—2017年城市日均污水处理能力（人均数）平衡发展指数趋势 ··················137 图7-19 我国各省（区、市）城市日均污水处理能力（人均数） ·······································138 图7-20 2011—2017年生态保护平衡发展指数趋势 ······························································140 图7-21 2011—2017年我国水土流失综合治理面积发展指数总体趋势 ······························141 图7-22 2011—2017年造林面积平衡发展指数趋势 ······························································141 _x00C_ 图8-1 收入平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·································································144 图8-2 居民人均可支配收入平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·····································145 图8-3 人均可支配收入的地区和城乡不平衡程度 ·································································146 图8-4 区域人均可支配收入情况 ·····························································································146 图8-5 城乡居民人均可支配收入趋势 ·····················································································147 图8-6 居民人均消费支出平衡发展趋势 ·················································································147 图8-7 居民人均消费支出区域发展趋势 ·················································································148 图8-8 居民人均消费支出城乡对比 ·························································································149 图8-9 就业平衡发展指数变动趋势 ·························································································151 图8-10 地区求人倍率对比 ·······································································································152 图8-11 高技术人才求人倍率趋势 ···························································································153 表8-1 2017年典型城市岗位空缺大于求职人数缺口*大的前三个职业及其占比 ············153 图8-12 居住平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·······························································156 图8-13 城镇人均住房建筑面积平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ·······························156 图8-14 2011—2017年各线城市的城镇人均住房建筑面积 ··················································157 图8-15 房价收入比平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···················································158 图8-16 我国各省（区、市）房价收入比 ···············································································159 图8-17 农村居住便利设施普及率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························159 图8-18 2011和2016年我国各省（区、市）农村卫生厕所普及率的地区分布 ················160 图8-19 2011—2017年我国教育平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······························163 图8-20 2011—2017年我国高中毛入学率变化趋势 ······························································164 图8-21 2011—2017年我国生师比平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ··························165 图8-22 2011—2017年我国生均教育经费支出平衡发展指数变化趋势 ······························165 图8-23 2017年我国各省（区、市）高中及以下阶段教育生均教育经费支出 ··················166 图8-24 2011—2017年医疗健康平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ······························168 图8-25 婴儿死亡率平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···················································169 图8-26 我国婴儿死亡率城乡不平衡程度 ···············································································169 图8-27 每千人口卫生技术人员数平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························170 图8-28 每千人口卫生技术人员数地区和城乡不平衡系数 ···················································171 图8-29 2011年和2017年我国各省（区、市）每千人口卫生技术人员数 ························172 图8-30 出生时预期寿命平衡发展指数 ···················································································172 图8-31 每千老年人口养老床位数平衡发展指数、发展指数及发展损失 ···························173 图8-32 每千老年人口养老床位数地区不平衡程度 ·······························································173 图8-33 2011—2017年各区域每千老年人口养老床位数 ······················································174 _x00C_ 图8-34 我国各省（区、市）每千老年人口养老床位数 ·······················································174 附表1 不同标准化方法的定性比较·························································································179 附表2 三级指标极差标准化基准参数的设定结果·································································181 附表3 各指标计算地区不平衡所采用的权重数据·································································183 附表4 2011—2017年平衡发展指数一级综合指数计算结果 ················································184 附表5 不同方案下的权重结构·································································································184 附图1 不同权重方案下平衡发展指数的发展趋势·································································185 附表6 2011年平衡发展指数测算结果 ····················································································192 附表7 2012年平衡发展指数测算结果····················································································194 附表8 2013年平衡发展指数测算结果····················································································196 附表9 2014年平衡发展指数测算结果····················································································198 附表10 2015年平衡发展指数测算结果··················································································200 附表11 2016年平衡发展指数测算结果 ··················································································202 附表12 2017年平衡发展指数测算结果··················································································204