黄淮海平原冬小麦水分生产力多尺度评估与提升

ContentsChapter 1 Climate change and crop water productivity: opportunities for improvement 11.1 Climate change and crop water productivity (CWP) 21.1.1 Climate change and agricultural production 21.1.2 The potential evapotranspiration and meteorological drought 31.1.3 Water storage 51.1.4 The impact of climate change on crop yields 61.1.5 Crop water productivity 71.2 Context， objectives and outline of the book 91.2.1 Context 91.2.2 Objectives 101.2.3 Outline 111.3 Study region and data collection 121.3.1 Study region 121.3.2 Data collection 141.4 Methods 161.4.1 Calculation of potential evapotranspiration 161.4.2 DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for yield simulation 171.4.3 Satellite-based actual evapotranspiration estimation using the SEBAL method 19References 20Chapter 2 Impacts of climate change on potential evapotranspiration under a historical period and future climate scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain， China 312.1 Introduction 322.2 Materials and methods 342.2.1 Study area 342.2.2 Meteorological data 362.2.3 Estimation of potential evapotranspiration 372.2.4 Time series analysis to quantify major trends 372.2.5 Sensitivity analysis and multivariate regression 382.3 Results 382.3.1 Historical and future trends of meteorological variables 382.3.2 Spatial and temporal characteristics of ET0 402.3.3 Temporal variation of sensitivity coefficients 452.3.4 Regional response of ET0 to climate change 482.4 Discussion 492.4.1 Spatio-temporal evolution of ET0 492.4.2 Impact of meteorological variables on ET0 502.4.3 Estimated precipitation deficit and impact on agriculture 512.5 Conclusions 52References 53Chapter 3 Spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain， China under the climate change scenario 593.1 Introduction 603.2 Materials and methods 623.2.1 Study region 623.2.2 Climate data 623.2.3 Drought area data 633.2.4 Calculations of drought indices 633.2.5 Drought identification using run theory 643.3 Results 653.3.1 Selection of preferable drought index 653.3.2 Drought characteristics over the past 50 years 653.3.3 Drought prediction for 2010–2099 under RCP8.5 scenario 703.4 Discussion 733.4.1 Trend variations between different drought indices 733.4.2 Applicability of drought index 753.5 Conclusions 76References 77Chapter 4 Potential effect of drought on winter wheat yield using DSSATCERES-Wheat model over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain， China 814.1 Introduction 814.2 Materials and methods 834.2.1 Study region and data description 834.2.2 Calculation of precipitation deficit for winter wheat 844.2.3 Crop model description 854.2.4 Statistical tests for trend analysis 854.3 Results 864.3.1 DSSAT evaluation 864.3.2 Trends and persistence of typical growth date and precipitation deficit 874.3.3 Variation of yield reduction rate 884.3.4 Cumulative probability of yield reduction rate 894.4 Discussion 914.5 Conclusions 92References 92Chapter 5 Investigation of the impact of climate change on wheat yield using DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain， China 975.1 Introduction 985.2 Materials and methods 1005.2.1 Study region 1005.2.2 CERES-Wheat crop model 1015.2.3 Simulated scenarios: past， future and isolated variables 1025.3 Results 1045.3.1 Testing of CERES-Wheat model 1045.3.2 Changes in growth duration and related climate variables 1055.3.3 Changes in yield and the contributions of single climate variables 1075.4 Discussion 1095.4.1 Negative impact of increasing solar radiation 1095.4.2 Positive impact of warming temperature and increasing precipitation 1115.5 Conclusions 112References 113Chapter 6 The impacts of climate change on wheat yield based on the DSSATCERES-Wheat model under the RCP8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain， China 1166.1 Introduction 1176.2 Materials and methods 1186.2.1 Study region 1186.2.2 CERES-Wheat model 1186.2.3 Simulation design 1196.3 Results 1216.3.1 Model calibration and validation 1216.3.2 Simulated changes of the phenological phase 1226.3.3 Changes of climatic variables during the wheat-growing period 1236.3.4 Impacts of different climate variables on wheat yield 1246.3.5 Impact of elevated CO2 on wheat yield 1266.4 Discussion 1276.4.1 The impact of warming temperatures 1276.4.2 Uncertainties 1286.5 Conclusions 129References 130Chapter 7 Water consumption in winter wheat and summer maize cropping system based on SEBAL model in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain，China 1337.1 Introduction 1347.2 Materials and methods 1357.2.1 Study area 1357.2.2 Crop dominance map 1367.2.3 Phenological data 1367.2.4 MODIS products 137