跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案

1扭转经济增速下行的框架性概述/ 00
11实体经济的休养生息/ 00
111降低企业成本必须减税降费/ 00
112推进降低成本的配套性体制改革/ 00
12产权改革为重，启动J型增长/ 00
13三方面基础性的体制改革/ 00
14盘活存量要素和资源的体制改革/ 0
141盘活城乡间要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
142盘活国有经济要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
143盘活创新要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
15拓宽增长来源领域的开放性体制改革/ 0
151一些被管制领域的体制改革/ 0
152拓展新增长领域的体制改革/ 0
153放开社会事业领域的体制改革/ 0
16围绕经济中高速增长布局对外经济开放/ 0
161减少对外漏损与出口替代战略/ 0
162“一带一路”思路与战略的补充与完善/ 02经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因/ 0
21人口收缩老化与经济格局变化/ 0
211“人口坑”对经济增长的20年影响定律/ 0
212增长乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 0
213经济发展的格局发生了重大的转折/ 0
22企业高成本重创实体经济/ 0
221政府银行国企GDP分配比例的上升/ 0
222城乡居民和民营实体经济所分配的GDP/ 0
223居民消费能力趋弱/ 0
224挤压利润和高债务迫使投资增速下行/ 0
225经济增长下行的GDP挤压力流程/ 0
23国民经济流量的对外漏损/ 0
231服务贸易逆差对经济增长的影响/ 0
232企业家资金转移的增长推动力漏损/ 0

3经济增速下行风险及其扭转的优势/ 0
31未来中国发展面临的一些风险/ 0
311经济增速长期下行和低位徘徊/ 0
312改革提振速度慢于经济增速下行的恶化/ 0
313金融和经济危机可能由高杠杆率引发/ 0
314税费供养失衡与温水煮青蛙的可能性/ 0
315养老金缺口与民粹化导致经济社会“希腊化”/ 0
32中美印之间未来基于人口的竞争/ 0
321中美印人口结构对比/ 0
322中美印未来人口数量和经济走势预测/ 0
323中美印未来GDP总量和均值预测/ 0
33中国经济增速的优势与潜力/
331睿智勤劳储蓄创业的中华民族/
332经济增速有坚实的基础/
333大国规模经济优势/

4经济增长的历史回顾与大势预判/
41改革开放以来三次S型经济增长/
411改革开启经济起飞的首个S型增长阶段/
412改革开放深化推进第二个S型增长阶段/
413加入WTO促改革形成第三轮S型增长/
42温故和判断及把握关系/
421三次经济增速上行和下行的经验和启示/
422五种叠加压力可能造成经济增速长期下行的格局/
423诊断和治疗经济增速下行的大体思路/

5实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革/
51实施综合降低成本的经济政策/
511扩张性政策对人口原因性衰退调节的失效/
512经济高成本需要供给学派政策调降/
513供给经济政策需要凯恩斯工具相配合/
52降成本必须推进的体制改革/
521金融体制方面的改革/
522运输、能源和土地降成本的体制改革/
523降低企业成本与税费供养体制改革/

6经济增长：突破性和基础动能性体制改革/
61突破性改革启动新一轮J型增长/
62长远期经济增长基础动能性体制改革/
621创业就业体制改革/
622转变观念和推进生育体制改革/

7经济增长：改革体制与盘活存量/
71城乡间要素和资源流动的体制改革/
711加速市民化的体制改革/
712农村土地使用财产权制度的改革/
72国企改革与促进经济增长/
721低效率国有经济与改革的紧迫性/
722体制成本和集中风险及国有领域选择/
723切实推进国有企业的体制改革/
73盘活创新领域要素和资源的改革/
731科技创新要素和资源利用的问题/
732盘活科技创新存量的体制改革/

8开放和拓展经济增长领域的体制改革/
81服务业体制改革及领域的开放/
811服务业发展存在的体制问题/
812服务业体制的分类改革和开放/
82社会事业领域向民间放开/
821目前发展民间社会组织的问题/
822拓宽社会事业领域的几个重大关系/
823发展和壮大民间社会组织层次/
83拓展增长的空间资源环境等新领域/
831通用航空领域体制改革和开放/
832土地淡水造林生态领域的开放/
833将环境保护和治理转变为创造GDP的产业/
834推进PPP体制改革吸引民间投资/

9促进经济增长与对外经济开放/
91国内外形势变化与对外开放的转折/
911基于国内经济形势变化的对外开放调整/
912国际形势变化与中国开放战略的调整/
92中国经济开放的优势和面临的挑战/
921对外经济开放的优势不容置疑/
922中国“走出去”面临的风险和自身的不足/
923特朗普时代：中国的不确定性、风险和机遇/
93未来对外开放战略的思路和组合/
931构建对外经济开放宏微观调节机制/
932产业升级与出口替代/
933投资、资金和进出口流入与流出平衡/
934产能转移、平衡推进和国内关联/
935“走出去”的方式和体制的转型/
936特朗普时代：中国坚持经济全球化/
937国内能源自主与淡水平衡/

后记/
Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of Economic Growth/ 00
11Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 00
111Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for Lowering Enterprises Cost/ 00
112The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting Cost Reduction/ 00
12Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 00
13Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 00
14Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements and Resources/ 0
141Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban and Rural Regions/ 0
142Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned Economic Elements and Resources/ 0
143Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational Elements and Resources/ 0
15Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening the Sources of Growth/ 0
151Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 0
152Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 0
153Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social Undertaking/ 0
16Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding Medium High-Speed Growth/ 0
161Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 0
162Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt and Road Initiatives”/ 0

Contents
Chapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing Down Economic Growth Rate/ 0
21Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 0
211Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit over Economic Growth / 0
212Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 0
213Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 0
22High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 0
221Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and State-owned Enterprises/ 0
222Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private Real Economy/ 0
223Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 0
224Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing Investment Slowdown/ 0
225GDPs Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 0
23Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 0
231Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 0
232Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0

Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages for Reversion/ 0
31Risks for China's Development in Future/ 0
311Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation at Low Level/ 0
312Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 0
313Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 0
314Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of “Boiling Frog” Effect/ 0
315Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation Similar as “Greeces Disease”/ 0
32Competitions Samong China, the United States and India Based on Population in Future/ 0
321Population Structure Comparison among China, America and India/ 0
322Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China, America and India/ 0
323Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China, America and India/ 0
33Advantages and Potential of China's Economic Growth/ 0
331Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings and Entrepreneurship/ 0
332Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/
333Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/

Chapter 4Review of Economic Growth and Prediction on Its Trends/
41Three Periods of Scurve Economic Growth since the Reform and Openingup in China/
411The First Stage of Scurve Growth Initiated by Reform/
412Deepening Reform and Openingup Which Advanced the Second Scurve Growth/
413Entry into WTO Promoteed Both Reform and the Third Stage of S-curve Growth/
42Reviews, Appraises and Relationship Analyses/
421Experience and Enlightenment of Three Cycles of Economic Upward and Downward/
422Superposition of Five Trends Which May Cause Long-term Economic Downturn/
423General Ideas of Diagnoses and Treatment for Economic Downturn/


Chapter 5Cost Reduction Policies and Supporting Reforms for Real Economy/
51To Implement Comprehensive Economic Policies for Cost Reduction/
511Ineffective Expansive Policies on Causal Decline of Population/
512High Cost Needs to Be Lowered from Supply-side/
513Supply-side Policies Embracing Keynesian Policies/
52Several Indispensable Structural Reforms for Promoting Cost Reduction/
521Reforms on Financial System/
522Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs in Transportation, Energy and Land/
523Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs for Enterprises and Taxes & Fees/ Chapter 6Economic Growth: Structural Reforms as Breakthroughs and Basic Momentums/
61Initiating New Round of “J” Shaped Growth by Achieving Breakthroughs in Reform/
62Establishing Basic Momentums for Long-term Growth/
621Structural Reform on Entrepreneurship and Employment System/
622Idea Changing and Advancing Structural Reform on Birth Control/

Chapter 7Economic Growth: Structural Reforms and Liquidizing Remnant Assets/
71Structural Reforms for Mobility of Factors and Resources Between Urban and Rural Areas/
711Speed-up Structural Reforms on Citizenizaition/
712Reforms on Land Property of Usage in Rural Areas/
72Reforming State-owned Enterprises and Promoting Economic Growth/
721Low Efficiency of State-owned Enterprises and Urgency for Reforms/
722Institutional Costs, Risks of Concentration and Choices of State-owned Domains/
723Firmly Promote Structural Reforms on State-owned Enterprises/
73Reforms for Liquidizing Factors and Resources in Innovative Domains/
731Problems of Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock and Resources/
732Structural Reforms on Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock/

Chapter 8Reforms for Opening up and Expanding the Fields of Growth/
81Reforms and Opening of Service Industry/
811Institutional Problems about Service Industry Development/
812Reforms on Service Industry System and Its Opening/
82Opening Social Undertaking Toward Private Capital/
821Problems of Social Associations Development at the Moment/
822Broadening the Major Relations of Social Undertaking/
823Developing and Expanding Hierarchies of Non-Official Social Undertaking/
83Expanding New Fields: Space, Resources and Environment/
831Structural Reform and Opening of General Aviation/
832Opening the Fields of Environment Such as Fresh Water and Afforestation/
833Turn Environment Protection into Industries Producing GDP/
834To Attract Private Investment by Advancing Structural Reforms of PPP /

Chapter 9Promoting Economic Growth and Openingup/
91Changes in the Domestic and International Situation and Transition of Chinas Openingup/
911Adjustment of Opening-up Based on Domestic Economic Situations/
912International Situation and Adjustment of Chinas Opening Strategy/
92Advantages and Challenges for Chinas Economic Opening/
921Unquestionable Advantages of Opening-up/
922Risks and Shortcomings of Chinas “Going Abroad”/
923Trumps Age: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities/
93Thoughts and Combinations of Opening-up Strategy in Future/
931Constructing Macro and Micro Regulatory Mechanism of Opening-up/
932Industrial Upgrading and Export Substitution/
933Investment, Capital, Balancing the Inflows & Outflows and Stabilizing Economic Growth/
934Industrial Capacity Shifting, Balanced Progress and Domestic Interrelations/
935Patterns of “Going Abroad” and Institutional Transition/
936Trumps Age:Chinas Insisting on Economic Globalization/
937Domestic Energy Independence and Balanced Fresh Water/

Postscript/