装备体系贡献率评估――理论、方法与应用

**篇 体系贡献率评估理论
第1 章 体系贡献率评估概述·························································.002
1.1 战略规划视野下的体系贡献率问题背景···································.002
1.1.1 体系贡献率：使命组织发展的核心价值观························.002
1.1.2 面向战略规划研究的体系贡献率问题分析························.004
1.2 体系贡献率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 体系贡献率的概念内涵················································.008
1.2.2 体系贡献率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 体系贡献率评估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 问题域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技术域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 总体研究框架····························································.014
1.4 体系贡献率评估的研究进展··················································.015
1.4.1 国内研究进展综述······················································.015
1.4.2 国外研究进展综述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究进展小结····························································.026
1.4.4 重点研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 体系贡献率评估的基础理论··············································.029
2.1 复杂系统与复杂网络···························································.029
2.1.1 复杂系统的净贡献概念················································.029
2.1.2 复杂适应系统理论······················································.029
2.1.3 复杂网络理论····························································.030
2.1.4 超网络理论·······························································.030
2.2 体系工程与能力机理···························································.031
2.2.1 体系贡献率的能力基准：基于能力的体系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 体系贡献率的作用原理：体系网络任务链路动量原理·········.035
2.2.3 体系贡献率的成因机理：体系协同、适应与层次涌现特性···.037
2.2.4 体系贡献率的能力培育：作战体系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 体系能力与效能及特性评估··················································.040
2.3.1 体系能力评估····························································.041
2.3.2 体系效能评估····························································.048
2.3.3 体系特性评估····························································.050
2.4 体系仿真实验与认知演化计算···············································.052
2.4.1 体系仿真实验····························································.052
2.4.2 认知演化计算····························································.058
2.4.3 体系动力学仿真·························································.064
第3 章 体系贡献率评估的基准流程··············································.065
3.1 体系贡献率评估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 国家安全战略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作战方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 体系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作战任务活动分析······················································.069
3.1.5 装备功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 装备评估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 体系贡献率评估方案设计·····················································.072
3.2.1 明确评估问题对象······················································.072
3.2.2 设置军事作战想定······················································.075
3.2.3 构建评估指标框架······················································.076
3.2.4 拟制总体评估方案······················································.077
3.3 体系贡献率全局能力评估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力评估模型构建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源数据获取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力评估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力贡献结果计算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力评估结果分析······················································.082
3.4 体系贡献率重点效能评估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能评估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定设置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真实验设计······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型开发集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真实验运行表现······