重大事故紧急预警决策的分析和优化模式(英文版)

Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 What Is Emergency Warning 3
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China 5
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toxic Gas Leakage Resulting in Evacuation 5
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Evacuation Events 6
1.4 Public Protection Methods 9
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacuation 9
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Personnel Evacuation for Toxic Gas Leakage 12
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacuation Area 15
1.5 Evacuation Scale Estimation 18
1.5.1 Population Scale Estimation Methods 18
1.5.2 The Influence Factors on the Scale of Evacuation 21
1.6 Research Status of Emergency Decisions Both at Home and Abroad 22
1.7 Research Objects and Characteristics 26
References 27
2 Emergency Warning System for Major Accidents 31
2.1 Emergency Warning System 31
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System 31
2.1.2 Functions of Early Warning System 32
2.1.3 Implementation of Early Warning System 34
2.2 Literature Review on References of Emergency Early Warning Both at Home and Abroad 36
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United States 36
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan 38
2.2.3 Public Alert System from Other Foreign Organizations 40
2.2.4 Public Alerting System in China 41
2.3 The Design and Implementation of Early Warning System for Major Accidents 43
2.3.1 FM Broadcasting Technology Based on Different Locations 43
2.3.2 The Structure of Public Alert System Based on FM Broadcast for Different Addresses 46
2.3.3 Researches on Hardware Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 49
2.3.4 Researches on Embedded Software Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 54
2.4 Summary of the Chapter 63
References 63
3 Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.1 An Overview of Researches on Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.2 The Influence Factors of Early Warning Communication 67
3.3 General Rules for Alert Information Communication 71
3.4 Modeling of the Communication Rules of Alert for Individual Household 74
3.4.1 The Establishment of the Model 74
3.4.2 The Solution of the Model 77
3.5 The Simulation and Results Analysis of Communication Model of Alerts for Individual Household 79
3.5.1 Simulation Results and Analysis of the Communication Time 80
3.5.2 The Simulation Results and Analysis of Closeness of Social Relationship 81
3.5.3 Simulation Analysis and Results of Deployment Proportion of Alert Receivers 83
3.6 Summary of the Chapter 83
References 85
4 Regional Evacuation Modeling for Toxic Cloud Releases and Its Application in Strategy Assessment of Evacuation Warning 89
4.1 Methods 90
4.1.1 Description of Regional Evacuation Network 90
4.1.2 Diffusion of Evacuation Warning 90
4.1.3 Loading of Evacuation Flow 94
4.1.4 Movement Through Regional Evacuation Network 95
4.2 Health Consequence Analysis 99
4.2.1 Accident Consequence Simulation 99
4.2.2 Exposure Dose Calculation 99
4.2.3 Conditional Probability of Consequences 100
4.3 Case Study and Discussion in China 100
4.3.1 Preliminaries 100
4.3.2 Evacuation Efficiency Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 103
4.3.3 Health Consequences of Accidents Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 107
4.4 Summary of the Chapter 108
References 109
5 Multi-objective Route Planning Model and Algorithm for Emergency Management 113
5.1 Literature Review 113
5.2 Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 116
5.2.1 Definition of Variables and Parameters 116
5.2.2 Bounded Rationality in Decision-Making 117
5.2.3 Multi-objective Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 117
5.3 Preliminaries 118
5.3.1 Classical Algorithms to Solve Single-Objective Shortest Path Problem 118
5.3.2 Construction of Auxiliary Functions 119
5.3.3 Main-Objective Method to Deal with Multi-objective Optimization Problems 121
5.4 Proposed Heuristic Algorithm 122
5.4.1 Static Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on A* Algorithm 123
5.4.2 Dynamic Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on D* Algorithm 124
5.4.3 Algorithm Advantage 124
5.5 Computational Experiments 125
5.5.1 Results of Model III When s Varies Within the Interval [0， 1] 125
5.5.2 Results of Model I in Static Environments 126
5.5.3 Results of Model I in Dynamic Environments 147
5.6 Summary of the Chapter 148
References 149
6 Evacuation Risk Assessment of Regional Evacuation for Major Accidents and Its Application in Emergency Planning 151
6.1 Evacuation Risk Assessment Process 154
6.1.1 Calculation of Received Dose 154
6.1.2 Conditional Probability Calculation of Health Consequence 158
6.1.3 Determination of Occurrence Probability 158
6.1.4 Calculation of Individual Evacuation Risk 158
6.1.5 Acceptable Risk Level 159
6.2 The Application in Emergency Planning 161