逆势而上

CONTENTS
Part I Growth and Risk Over the Medium Term 1
How Fast Will China Grow Over the Next 15 Years 3
China’s Path to High-Income Status Lessons from Recent
Success Stories 11
Can China Be the Next South Korea 23
Beidou China’s First Outer Space Infrastructure Project 33
PBOC’s Virtual Renminbi Is Becoming a Reality 38
China’s High-Speed Rail A Case Study in Independent Innovation 46
5G and the Competition to Win the 21st Century 52
Is China’s Investment Really That Unproductive 58
How Sustainable Is China’s Debt 66
China Needs More Defaults and More Meaningful Credit Ratings 77
Is China Facing a Demographic Crisis 84
How Can China Promote a Sustainable Increase in Household
Consumption 94
Mooncake Madness 102
American Families Only Half as Rich as Those in Chinese Cities 107
How Should We Think About Rising Home Prices 113
Property Developers: Debt Taking Aim at the Grey Rhino 122
Why Not Eliminate Corporate Income Taxes 130
How Can China Achieve Carbon Neutrality By 2060 140
Part II Data and Analytic Techniques 149
China’s Economy The View From the IMF 151
Are Central Banks Behind the Curve on Inflation 159
Big Mac Prices — No Bull 170
Is the US Chip Export Ban Consistent With Its WTO Commitments 180
Can Robots Help Mitigate China’s Demographic Decline 188
The Demise of China’s Private Sector Greatly Exaggerated 201
Part III China and the Rest of the World 213
US Companies In China for the Long Haul 215
Will Japanese Firms Desert China 224
Shall the Twain Never Meet 232
The High Cost of US-China Decoupling 244
China’s Balance of Payments Show the Dual Circulation Strategy
at Work 250
How Long Will Foreign Investors’ Love Affair With Chinese Bonds
Last 261
Can China and the US Cooperate and Reform the WTO 271
Are the Worst in US-China Relations Behind Us 279
China and American Foreign Policy for the Middle Class 289
Part IV The Pandemic and the Chinese Government’s Response 295
Advice from VoxEu Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes 297
How Will China Manage Massive Layoffs 303
Is China Decapitalizing Its Banks 309
Are the Chinese Banks Really Supporting the Recovery 317
COVID 19 Is Accelerating China-US Convergence 326
Trust in Chinese Government Defies Global Trend 332
目 录
部分 中期经济增长和风险 / 2
未来15年中国经济预期增速是多少? / 7
中国通向高收入国家之路 / 17
中国会成为下一个韩国吗? / 28
北斗:中国首个外太空基础设施建设工程 / 35
中国人民银行虚拟人民币正在成为现实 / 42
中国高铁:自主创新的案例研究 / 49
5G 与赢得21世纪的竞争 / 55
中国的投资真的没有收益吗? / 62
中国的债务有多可持续? / 72
中国债券市场需要更多“违约”和更有意义的信用等级评定 / 81
中国是否面临人口危机? / 89
如何促进中国家庭消费的可持续增长? / 98
月饼狂热 / 105
美国家庭只有中国城市家庭一半富有 / 110
我们应该如何看待房价不断上涨? / 118
房地产开发商债务:瞄准“灰犀牛” / 126
何不取消企业所得税? / 135
中国如何在2060年前实现碳中和? / 144
第二部分 数据及分析技巧 / 150
中国经济:国际货币基金组织如是观 / 155
中央银行在通胀问题上落后了吗? / 165
巨无霸价格:牛年不吹牛 / 175
美国芯片出口禁令符合其世界贸易组织承诺吗? / 184
机器人能否帮助缓解中国人口下降的趋势? / 194
中国私营部门的败落:被过分夸大了 / 207
第三部分 中国与世界 / 214
美国公司:在中国作长远打算 / 220
日本企业会离开中国吗? / 228
无问西东,相向而行 / 238
中美“脱钩”的高昂代价 / 247
中国的国际收支表明“双循环”战略正在奏效 / 256
外国投资者和中国债券的“恋情”会持续多久? / 266
中美可以合作并改革世界贸易组织吗? / 275
中美关系触底了吗? / 284
中国与美国对中产阶级的外交政策 / 292
第四部分 新冠肺炎疫情和中国政府的应对之策 / 296
来自VoxEu的建议:不惜一切代价迅速行动 / 300
中国将如何应对大规模裁员? / 306
中国欲削减银行资本? / 313
银行真在支持中国经济复苏吗? / 322
新冠肺炎疫情加速缩小中美经济规模的差距 / 329
全球信任度下滑之际,中国政府信任度逆势上升 / 336