旅游需求预测 当代视角

Chapter 1 Introduction 1．1 Research Background and Motivation 1．2 Research Aim and Objectives 1．3 Overview of International Demand for UK Tourism 1．4 Structure of This Book Chapter 2 Literature Review 2．1 Introduction 2．2 Non-causal Time Series Techniques 2．2．1 Overview 2．2．2 The Naive Model 2．2．3 The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model 2．2．4 The Exponential Smoothing Model 2．2．5 The State Space ETS Model 2．2．6The Structural Time Series Model 2．2．7 The Singular Spectrum Analysis 2．3 Causal Econometric Models 2．3．1 Overview 2．3．2 The Single-Equation Approach 2．3．3 The System-of-Equations Approach 2．3．4 Studies Based on Panel Data 2．3．5 Climate and Tourism Demand 2．4 The Combination Forecasting Approach 2．4．1 Why to Combine? 2．4．2 Weighting Schemes 2．4．3 Applications in the Tourism Demand Literature 2．5 Data 2．5．1 Data Type 2．5．2 Data Frequency 2．6 Summary …… Chapter 3 Research Method Chapter 4 Results and Discussion： Impact Analysis Chapter 5 Results and Discussion： Forecasts Comparison Chapter 6 Conclusion Bibliography