繁荣的轮回:人口变动与经济增长的一个逻辑解释

第1部分中国经济学界的未解之谜
1问题的起因/00
11中国奇迹：经济高速增长30年/00
111经济实力快速增长/00
112从农业经济社会向现代工业社会的转型/00
113对外贸易的“引进来”和“走出去”/00
114人民生活从温饱到小康/0
12中国经济高速增长的成因/0
121高生育率积蓄了大规模的剩余劳动力/0
122剩余劳动力优势成功嵌入全球产业链/0
123经济主力人口的创业创新动力/0
132008年经济增速开始下行/0
131工业生产转入了全面过剩/0
132消费、投资增速下行和突然放缓/0
133传统的出口优势逐步趋弱并已消失殆尽/0 2经济下行的“两家争鸣”与质疑/0
21经济本不应进入中速增长阶段/0
211“中速增长常态论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
212对“中速增长常态论”的商榷/0
22经济下行不是外因所致/0
221“增速下行外因论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
222对“增速下行外因论”的商榷/0

目录第2部分学术争论与历史演变
3人口与发展：理论述评与事实/0
31人口与经济关系理论的回顾与评述/0
311适度人口论与人口控制主张/0
312《增长的极限》与人口资源悲观论/0
313市场机制调控家庭生育决策的基本过程/0
314人口流动与经济增长关系的研究述评/0
32人口增长与工业化发展/0
321人口增长是工业化的必要条件/0
322人口增长方式转型也是工业化的产物/0
33人口流动、城市化及工业化发展/0
331人口流动加速城市化的进程/0
332城市化与工业化发展的互动/0
34人口、工业化与生态环境的动态协调发展/0
341人口增长与资源的协调发展/0
342人口、工业化与环境的协调发展/0
343人口、工业化与生态环境的动态发展/0 4生育权与迁移权/0
41生育权与迁移权的界定/0
411生育权在个人和国家间的归属之争/0
412迁移权在个人与国家间不同的安排/0
42 生育权的经济学分析/
421生育权的经济学解释/
422生育权行使的经济学探讨/
43 迁移权的经济学分析/
431迁移权的经济学解释/
432迁移权行使的经济学探讨/ 5 世界经验：基于不同生育权和迁移权的配置/
51 基于不同生育权配置的国际经验/
511美国不干预的生育及经济发展/
512日本指导性计划生育与经济的先富后低/
513韩国指导性计划生育历程/
514中国台湾地区的指导性计划生育/
515计划生育政策在印度的流产 /
516不同生育权配置的国际经验总结/
52 基于不同迁移权配置的国际经验/
521美国的人口迁移自由/
522日本的人口迁移和住民登记/
523法国的迁移自由和流动人口管理/
524俄罗斯人口迁移及其低流动性/
525印度的人口迁移与贫民窟的形成/
526不同迁移权配置的国际经验总结/

第3部分中国人口生育管制的经济后果
6 “人口坑”与经济增长的陷阱/
61 “人口坑”深浅与经济高增长时间的长短/
611工业化阶段的“人口坑”与经济增长速度/
612中国“人口坑”与经济增长速度放慢/
62 人口增长变动对经济增长速度的影响/
621即期影响：人口增长对经济增长的影响/
622长期影响：人口变动的20年延期影响定理/ 7 人口结构失衡和老龄化的经济后果/
71 人口结构与经济排浪式变动及增长波动/
711人口变动与消费、投资和出口变动的数理关系/
712人口变动引致国民经济排浪式衰退/
72 未来经济长期承受的下行和老龄化压力/
721国民经济未来长期面临的下行压力/
722未来老龄化加剧的诸多难题/
第4部分中国人口流动管制的经济后果
8 人口进入城市和退出农村的障碍和问题/
81 流动人口市民化的进入障碍/
811中国户籍管理制度变迁与人口流动/
812社会保障与公共服务的不公平/
82进城农民工人口的农村财产退出障碍/
821农民理性经济人与退出资产障碍和机会成本/
822出租退出困境与其他退出方式比较/
823农地制度复杂性与建设征用为国有之弊/ 9 城市化流程的扭曲和消费塌陷/
91 “青出老回”与漂泊于城市/
911人口城乡钟摆式和不同地频繁流动/
912人口从农村到城市的“青出老回”/
913不返乡的农民工人口在城市中漂泊/
914大多数国家能够市民化的城市化/
92城市消费抑制和农村消费塌陷/
921流动人口干预制度下的城市消费抑制/
922“青出老回”流程与农村消费塌陷/


结束语/
参考文献/





0000












PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community
1Origin of the Problem/ 00
11Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 00
111Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 00
112Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern Industrial Economy/ 00
113“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 00
114From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 0
12The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 0
121High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 0
122Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into Global Industrial Chain/ 0
123Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major Economic Force/ 0
13The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 0
131Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 0
132Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of Consumption and Investment/ 0
133Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 0
2Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 0
21The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 0
211The Logic and Policy View of “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
212Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
22Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 0
221The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0
222Discussion over “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0



Contents

PART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution
3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 0
31The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of Population and Economy/ 0
311Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 0
312“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population and Resources/ 0
313Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 0
314Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility and Economic Growth/ 0
32Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 0
321Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 0
322Transition of Population Growth as Outcome of Industrialization/ 0
33Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 0
331Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 0
332Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 0
34The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
341Harmonious Development between Population Growth and Resources/ 0
342Harmonious Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
343Dynamic Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
4Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
41The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
411Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family and Government/ 0
412Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family and Government/ 0
42The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/
421Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/
422Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/
43The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/
431Economic Explanation of Migration Right/
432Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/
5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different Reproductive Right and Migration Right/
51The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/
511Nonintervention Experience of the United States/
512Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its Economic Up and Down/
513History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/
514Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/
515Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/
516International Experience of Different Arrangement of Reproductive Right/
52The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/
521Free Migration of Population in the United States/
522Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/
523Free Migration of Population and Floating Population Management in France/
524Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/
525Migration of Population and Formation of Slum Problem in India/
526International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration of Population/

PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Planning System
6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/
61The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High Economic Growth/
611“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage and Economic Growth/
612“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/
62The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic Growth Rate/
621Immediate Influence: Population Growth over Economic Growth/
622Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Growth/
7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging Population Structure/
71Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation of Increase/
711Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/
712Population Change Leads to National Economic Downturn as Waves/
72The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/
721Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of National Economy/
722Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/

PART FOURThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Flow Regulation System
8The Barriers and Problems of Population Entering Cities and Exiting Rural Areas/
81The Entry Barriers of theCitizenization of Migrant Population/
811Transition of Household Registration System and Population Movement in China/
812Inequality of Social Securities and Public Services/
82The Exit Barriers of Rural Property for Migrant Workers in Cities/
821Exit Barriers and Opportunity Cost for Farmers as Rational Economic Man/
822Dilemma of Renting to Exit and Comparison with Other Methods/
823Complexity of Rural Land System and Fraud of Acquisition as State-owned/
9The Twist of Urbanization Process and Consumption Downfall/
91“Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Drifting in Cities/
911Frequent Migration of Population among Multiple Destinations between Rural and Urban Areas in Pendulum Mode/
912Population Migration between Rural and Urban Areas as “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age”/
913Drifting Migrant Workers in Cities instead of Returning to Rural Areas/
914Urbanization with Citizenization in Most Countries/
92The Restriction on Urban Consumption and the Downfall of Rural Consumption/
921System with Intervention over Floating Population Which Restraining Consumption/
922Process of “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Consumption Downfall in Rural Areas/

Conclusion/
References/